Decision Trees That Resist Hindsight Bias
Trees reveal how preliminary forks influence downstream costs, risks, and learning value. Preserve branches you decided not to take, including probabilities and payoffs considered at the time, to safeguard against tidy after‑the‑fact rationalizations. Mark information-gathering steps explicitly, treating experiments as investments with option value. When outcomes disappoint, the record demonstrates disciplined reasoning, helping leaders reward sound process rather than lucky results, which ultimately improves organizational judgment and courage.